Sokół Ostróda 4–1 Pelikan Łowicz: Result & Stats

Sokół Ostróda

FT

4 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Pelikan Łowicz

10/29/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Ostróda36%

×Draw23%

Pelikan Łowicz41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół OstródaExpected goals in this matchPelikan Łowicz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.79

Sokół Ostróda

1.66

Pelikan Łowicz

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

1.76

creates per match

1.23

2.35

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda

1.76

Pelikan Łowicz

1.23

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda

2.35

Pelikan Łowicz

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw

59%

Sokół Ostróda or Pelikan Łowicz

77%

Draw or Pelikan Łowicz

64%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+

18%

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals

81%

Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals

49%

Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals

23%

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals

83%

Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals

53%

Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)

47%

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.76 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.66

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more

36%

level

23%

Pelikan Łowicz scores more

41%

Pelikan Łowicz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff