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Sokół Ostróda vs Olimpia Elbląg — II Liga - East 2019

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
4/3/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 25Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokół Ostróda37%
×Draw26%
Olimpia Elbląg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.34
Olimpia Elbląg
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.24
Olimpia Elbląg
0.94

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.74
Olimpia Elbląg
1.44

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Olimpia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
63%
Sokół Ostróda or Olimpia Elbląg
74%
Draw or Olimpia Elbląg
63%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
17%
Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
74%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
39%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
15%
Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
74%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
39%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
50%
Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

Olimpia Elbląg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.24 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Olimpia Elbląg attack 0.94 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
37%
level
26%
Olimpia Elbląg scores more
37%

Sokół Ostróda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sokół Ostróda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Sokół Ostróda 2–1 Olimpia Elbląg

Sokół Ostróda beat Olimpia Elbląg 2-1 in II Liga - East on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.