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Sokół Ostróda vs Motor Lublin — II Liga - East 2019

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
10/23/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 14Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokół Ostróda33%
×Draw26%
Motor Lublin41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.25
Motor Lublin
1.44

Motor Lublin creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 53 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.24
Motor Lublin
1.13

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.74
Motor Lublin
1.25

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Motor Lublin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
59%
Sokół Ostróda or Motor Lublin
74%
Draw or Motor Lublin
67%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
14%
Motor Lublin wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
71%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
36%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
13%
Motor Lublin 1+ goals
76%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
42%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
44%
Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.24 + Motor Lublin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Motor Lublin attack 1.13 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
33%
level
26%
Motor Lublin scores more
41%

Motor Lublin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Sokół Ostróda 1–1 Motor Lublin

Sokół Ostróda and Motor Lublin drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.