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Sokół Ostróda vs Mławianka Mława — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
1 – 4
Mławianka Mława
Mławianka Mława
3/18/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Ostróda38%
×Draw22%
Mławianka Mława40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.85
Mławianka Mława
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.76
Mławianka Mława
1.46

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
2.35
Mławianka Mława
1.94

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Mławianka Mława+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Mławianka Mława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
60%
Sokół Ostróda or Mławianka Mława
78%
Draw or Mławianka Mława
62%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
20%
Mławianka Mława wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
84%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
55%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
28%
Mławianka Mława 1+ goals
85%
Mławianka Mława 2+ goals
57%
Mławianka Mława 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
49%
Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Mławianka Mława away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.76 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.85

Mławianka Mława attack 1.46 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
38%
level
22%
Mławianka Mława scores more
40%

Mławianka Mława at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mławianka Mława will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Sokół Ostróda 1–4 Mławianka Mława

Mławianka Mława beat Sokół Ostróda 4-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.