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Sokół Ostróda vs Legionovia Legionowo — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
5/13/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Ostróda33%
×Draw21%
Legionovia Legionowo46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.69
Legionovia Legionowo
2.02

Legionovia Legionowo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.76
Legionovia Legionowo
1.69

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
2.35
Legionovia Legionowo
1.63

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
54%
Sokół Ostróda or Legionovia Legionowo
79%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
67%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
16%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
82%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
50%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
24%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
87%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
60%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
42%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.76 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
33%
level
21%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
46%

Legionovia Legionowo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Ostróda vs Legionovia Legionowo

Legionovia Legionowo beat Sokół Ostróda 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.