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Sokół Ostróda vs Jagiellonia II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II
10/15/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Ostróda35%
×Draw22%
Jagiellonia II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.71
Jagiellonia II
1.92

Jagiellonia II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 103 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.76
Jagiellonia II
1.48

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
2.35
Jagiellonia II
1.67

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Jagiellonia II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Jagiellonia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
57%
Sokół Ostróda or Jagiellonia II
78%
Draw or Jagiellonia II
65%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
17%
Jagiellonia II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
82%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
51%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
24%
Jagiellonia II 1+ goals
85%
Jagiellonia II 2+ goals
57%
Jagiellonia II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
45%
Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Jagiellonia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.67 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.76 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jagiellonia II attack 1.48 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
35%
level
22%
Jagiellonia II scores more
43%

Jagiellonia II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Ostróda vs Jagiellonia II

Sokół Ostróda beat Jagiellonia II 3-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.