Sokół Ostróda 2–1 Concordia Elbląg: Result & Stats

Sokół Ostróda

FT

2 – 1

Concordia Elbląg

9/17/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Ostróda49%

×Draw21%

Concordia Elbląg31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół OstródaExpected goals in this matchConcordia Elbląg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.70

Sokół Ostróda

2.17

Concordia Elbląg

1.70

Sokół Ostróda creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

1.76

creates per match

1.04

2.35

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda

1.76

Concordia Elbląg

1.04

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda

2.35

Concordia Elbląg

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Concordia Elbląg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw

69%

Sokół Ostróda or Concordia Elbląg

79%

Draw or Concordia Elbląg

51%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+

28%

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals

89%

Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals

64%

Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals

36%

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals

82%

Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals

51%

Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)

61%

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.76 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.17

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more

49%

level

21%

Concordia Elbląg scores more

31%

Sokół Ostróda at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sokół Ostróda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff