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Sokół Ostróda vs Chojniczanka Chojnice — II Liga - East 2019

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
11/28/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 15Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokół Ostróda30%
×Draw25%
Chojniczanka Chojnice46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.23
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.59

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 87 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.24
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.45

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.74
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.23

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
54%
Sokół Ostróda or Chojniczanka Chojnice
75%
Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice
70%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
12%
Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
71%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
35%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
13%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
80%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
47%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
39%
Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.24 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.45 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
30%
level
25%
Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
46%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Sokół Ostróda 3–0 Chojniczanka Chojnice

Sokół Ostróda beat Chojniczanka Chojnice 3-0 in II Liga - East on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.