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Sokół Ostróda vs Bełchatów — II Liga - East 2019

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
CANC
14:00
Bełchatów
Bełchatów
5/7/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sokół Ostróda54%
×Draw23%
Bełchatów23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.77
Bełchatów
1.07

Sokół Ostróda creates 65% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.24
Bełchatów
0.40

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.74
Bełchatów
2.30

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Bełchatów+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Bełchatów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
77%
Sokół Ostróda or Bełchatów
77%
Draw or Bełchatów
46%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
30%
Bełchatów wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
83%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
53%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
26%
Bełchatów 1+ goals
66%
Bełchatów 2+ goals
29%
Bełchatów 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
70%
Bełchatów (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

Bełchatów away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.24 + Bełchatów defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.77

Bełchatów attack 0.40 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
54%
level
23%
Bełchatów scores more
23%

Sokół Ostróda at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sokół Ostróda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokół Ostróda vs Bełchatów — Match Preview

Sokół Ostróda face Bełchatów on May 7, 2022 in this II Liga - East fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.