Sokół Kleczew 0–4 Radunia Stężyca: Result & Stats

Sokół Kleczew

FT

0 – 4

Radunia Stężyca

10/10/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Kleczew23%

×Draw20%

Radunia Stężyca56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół KleczewExpected goals in this matchRadunia Stężyca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

2.19

Sokół Kleczew

1.35

Radunia Stężyca

2.19

Radunia Stężyca creates 62% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

1.88

creates per match

3.06

1.31

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Sokół Kleczew

1.88

Radunia Stężyca

3.06

allows per match

Sokół Kleczew

1.31

Radunia Stężyca

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Kleczew ↓

Radunia Stężyca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sokół Kleczew or draw

44%

Sokół Kleczew or Radunia Stężyca

80%

Draw or Radunia Stężyca

77%

Winning margin

Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+

10%

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals

74%

Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals

39%

Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals

15%

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals

89%

Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals

64%

Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)

29%

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Kleczew at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 3.06, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.88 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.35

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.06 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sokół Kleczew scores more

23%

level

20%

Radunia Stężyca scores more

56%

Radunia Stężyca at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff