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Sokół Kleczew vs Pomorzanin Toruń — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Sokół Kleczew
Sokół Kleczew
FT
1 – 1
Pomorzanin Toruń
Pomorzanin Toruń
8/8/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Kleczew47%
×Draw24%
Pomorzanin Toruń29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Kleczew
1.67
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.25

Sokół Kleczew creates 34% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sokół Kleczew
1.88
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.18

allows per match

Sokół Kleczew
1.31
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.47

finishing

Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par
Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Kleczew ↓

Pomorzanin Toruń →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sokół Kleczew or draw
71%
Sokół Kleczew or Pomorzanin Toruń
76%
Draw or Pomorzanin Toruń
53%

Winning margin

Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+
25%
Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals
81%
Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals
50%
Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals
23%
Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals
71%
Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals
36%
Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)
62%
Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Kleczew at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

Pomorzanin Toruń away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.88 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.18 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sokół Kleczew scores more
47%
level
24%
Pomorzanin Toruń scores more
29%

Sokół Kleczew at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sokół Kleczew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Kleczew vs Pomorzanin Toruń

Sokół Kleczew and Pomorzanin Toruń drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kleczew.