Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sokół Kleczew vs Olimpia Grudziądz — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Sokół Kleczew
Sokół Kleczew
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olimpia Grudziądz
Olimpia Grudziądz
K. Janiak 3'
3/25/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sokół Kleczew26%
×Draw24%
Olimpia Grudziądz50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Kleczew
1.17
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.70

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 45% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sokół Kleczew
1.88
Olimpia Grudziądz
2.09

allows per match

Sokół Kleczew
1.31
Olimpia Grudziądz
0.45

finishing

Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par
Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Kleczew ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sokół Kleczew or draw
50%
Sokół Kleczew or Olimpia Grudziądz
76%
Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz
74%

Winning margin

Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+
10%
Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals
69%
Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals
33%
Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals
11%
Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals
82%
Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals
51%
Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)
35%
Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Kleczew at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.88 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 2.09 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sokół Kleczew scores more
26%
level
24%
Olimpia Grudziądz scores more
50%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
K. Janiak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Kleczew vs Olimpia Grudziądz

Sokół Kleczew beat Olimpia Grudziądz 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 25, 2023.

Goals: K. Janiak (3').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kleczew.