Sokół Kleczew 0–1 Noteć Czarnków: Result & Stats

Sokół Kleczew

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Noteć Czarnków

11/16/2024

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sokół Kleczew47%

×Draw23%

Noteć Czarnków30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół KleczewExpected goals in this matchNoteć Czarnków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.43

Sokół Kleczew

1.85

Noteć Czarnków

1.43

Sokół Kleczew creates 29% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 51 away

1.88

creates per match

1.55

1.31

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Sokół Kleczew

1.88

Noteć Czarnków

1.55

allows per match

Sokół Kleczew

1.31

Noteć Czarnków

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par

Noteć Czarnków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Kleczew ↓

Noteć Czarnków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sokół Kleczew or draw

70%

Sokół Kleczew or Noteć Czarnków

77%

Draw or Noteć Czarnków

53%

Winning margin

Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+

26%

Noteć Czarnków wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals

84%

Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals

55%

Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals

28%

Noteć Czarnków 1+ goals

76%

Noteć Czarnków 2+ goals

42%

Noteć Czarnków 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)

61%

Noteć Czarnków (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Kleczew at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

Noteć Czarnków away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.88 + Noteć Czarnków defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Noteć Czarnków attack 1.55 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sokół Kleczew scores more

47%

level

23%

Noteć Czarnków scores more

30%

Sokół Kleczew at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sokół Kleczew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff