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Sokół Kleczew vs Górnik Konin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Sokół Kleczew
Sokół Kleczew
FT
3 – 1
Górnik Konin
Górnik Konin
4/10/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Kleczew56%
×Draw23%
Górnik Konin22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Kleczew
1.85
Górnik Konin
1.06

Sokół Kleczew creates 75% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sokół Kleczew
1.88
Górnik Konin
0.82

allows per match

Sokół Kleczew
1.31
Górnik Konin
1.82

finishing

Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par
Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Kleczew ↓

Górnik Konin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sokół Kleczew or draw
78%
Sokół Kleczew or Górnik Konin
77%
Draw or Górnik Konin
44%

Winning margin

Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+
32%
Górnik Konin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals
84%
Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals
55%
Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals
28%
Górnik Konin 1+ goals
65%
Górnik Konin 2+ goals
29%
Górnik Konin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)
72%
Górnik Konin (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Kleczew at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

Górnik Konin away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.88 + Górnik Konin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Górnik Konin attack 0.82 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sokół Kleczew scores more
56%
level
23%
Górnik Konin scores more
22%

Sokół Kleczew at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sokół Kleczew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Kleczew vs Górnik Konin

Sokół Kleczew beat Górnik Konin 3-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kleczew.