Sokół Kleczew 1–2 Cartusia Kartuzy: Result & Stats

Sokół Kleczew

FT

1 – 2

Cartusia Kartuzy

3/11/2023

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Sokół Kleczew48%

×Draw23%

Cartusia Kartuzy28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół KleczewExpected goals in this matchCartusia Kartuzy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.30

Sokół Kleczew

1.77

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.30

Sokół Kleczew creates 36% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 59 away

1.88

creates per match

1.29

1.31

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Sokół Kleczew

1.88

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.29

allows per match

Sokół Kleczew

1.31

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par

Cartusia Kartuzy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Kleczew ↓

Cartusia Kartuzy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sokół Kleczew or draw

72%

Sokół Kleczew or Cartusia Kartuzy

77%

Draw or Cartusia Kartuzy

52%

Winning margin

Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+

26%

Cartusia Kartuzy wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals

83%

Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals

53%

Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals

26%

Cartusia Kartuzy 1+ goals

73%

Cartusia Kartuzy 2+ goals

37%

Cartusia Kartuzy 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)

63%

Cartusia Kartuzy (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Kleczew at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

Cartusia Kartuzy away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.66 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.88 + Cartusia Kartuzy defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.77

Cartusia Kartuzy attack 1.29 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sokół Kleczew scores more

48%

level

23%

Cartusia Kartuzy scores more

28%

Sokół Kleczew at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sokół Kleczew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff