Sokół Aleksandrów 1–1 Ursus Warszawa

Sokół Aleksandrów

FT

1 – 1

Ursus Warszawa

5/22/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów36%

×Draw25%

Ursus Warszawa39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół AleksandrówExpected goals in this matchUrsus Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.44

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.37

Ursus Warszawa

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

1.08

creates per match

1.38

1.50

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.08

Ursus Warszawa

1.38

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.50

Ursus Warszawa

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Ursus Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw

61%

Sokół Aleksandrów or Ursus Warszawa

75%

Draw or Ursus Warszawa

64%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+

16%

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals

75%

Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals

40%

Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals

16%

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals

76%

Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals

42%

Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)

48%

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.37

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more

36%

level

25%

Ursus Warszawa scores more

39%

Ursus Warszawa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ursus Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff