Sokół Aleksandrów 0–0 Pilica Białobrzegi

Sokół Aleksandrów

FT

0 – 0

Pilica Białobrzegi

11/6/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów48%

×Draw23%

Pilica Białobrzegi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół AleksandrówExpected goals in this matchPilica Białobrzegi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.31

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.76

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.31

Sokół Aleksandrów creates 34% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

1.08

creates per match

1.13

1.50

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.08

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.13

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.50

Pilica Białobrzegi

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw

71%

Sokół Aleksandrów or Pilica Białobrzegi

77%

Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi

52%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+

26%

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals

83%

Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals

52%

Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals

26%

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals

73%

Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals

38%

Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)

63%

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.76

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more

48%

level

23%

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more

29%

Sokół Aleksandrów at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sokół Aleksandrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff