Sokół Aleksandrów 1–2 Mamry Giżycko: Result & Stats

Sokół Aleksandrów

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mamry Giżycko

6/10/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów42%

×Draw25%

Mamry Giżycko33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół AleksandrówExpected goals in this matchMamry Giżycko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.36

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.57

Mamry Giżycko

1.36

Sokół Aleksandrów creates 15% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

1.08

creates per match

1.22

1.50

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.08

Mamry Giżycko

1.22

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.50

Mamry Giżycko

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Mamry Giżycko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw

67%

Sokół Aleksandrów or Mamry Giżycko

75%

Draw or Mamry Giżycko

58%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+

21%

Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals

79%

Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals

46%

Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals

21%

Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals

74%

Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals

39%

Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)

56%

Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Mamry Giżycko away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Mamry Giżycko defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.57

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.22 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more

42%

level

25%

Mamry Giżycko scores more

33%

Sokół Aleksandrów at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sokół Aleksandrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff