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Sokół Aleksandrów vs Legionovia Legionowo — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
FT
0 – 0
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
9/26/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów32%
×Draw24%
Legionovia Legionowo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.35
Legionovia Legionowo
1.59

Legionovia Legionowo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.08
Legionovia Legionowo
1.69

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Legionovia Legionowo
1.63

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw
57%
Sokół Aleksandrów or Legionovia Legionowo
76%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
68%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
14%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
74%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
39%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
15%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
80%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
47%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
43%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
32%
level
24%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
43%

Legionovia Legionowo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Aleksandrów vs Legionovia Legionowo

Sokół Aleksandrów and Legionovia Legionowo drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka in Aleksandrów Łódzki.