Sokół Aleksandrów 1–1 Huragan Morąg: Result & Stats

Sokół Aleksandrów

FT

1 – 1

Huragan Morąg

11/11/2020

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów44%

×Draw24%

Huragan Morąg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół AleksandrówExpected goals in this matchHuragan Morąg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.36

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.65

Huragan Morąg

1.36

Sokół Aleksandrów creates 21% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

1.08

creates per match

1.22

1.50

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.08

Huragan Morąg

1.22

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.50

Huragan Morąg

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Huragan Morąg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Huragan Morąg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw

68%

Sokół Aleksandrów or Huragan Morąg

76%

Draw or Huragan Morąg

56%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+

23%

Huragan Morąg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals

81%

Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals

49%

Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals

23%

Huragan Morąg 1+ goals

74%

Huragan Morąg 2+ goals

39%

Huragan Morąg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)

58%

Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Huragan Morąg away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.65

Huragan Morąg attack 1.22 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more

44%

level

24%

Huragan Morąg scores more

32%

Sokół Aleksandrów at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sokół Aleksandrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff