Sokół Aleksandrów 0–1 Broń Radom: Result & Stats

Sokół Aleksandrów

FT

0 – 1

Broń Radom

10/10/2020

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów41%

×Draw25%

Broń Radom34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół AleksandrówExpected goals in this matchBroń Radom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.33

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.48

Broń Radom

1.33

Sokół Aleksandrów creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 103 away

1.08

creates per match

1.17

1.50

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.08

Broń Radom

1.17

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.50

Broń Radom

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Broń Radom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Broń Radom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw

66%

Sokół Aleksandrów or Broń Radom

75%

Draw or Broń Radom

59%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+

20%

Broń Radom wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals

77%

Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals

43%

Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals

19%

Broń Radom 1+ goals

74%

Broń Radom 2+ goals

38%

Broń Radom 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)

55%

Broń Radom (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Broń Radom away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Broń Radom defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.48

Broń Radom attack 1.17 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more

41%

level

25%

Broń Radom scores more

34%

Sokół Aleksandrów at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sokół Aleksandrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff