Broń Radom 1–0 Sokół Aleksandrów: Result & Stats

Broń Radom

FT

1 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sokół Aleksandrów

11/23/2024

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Boisko sztuczne Narutowicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Broń Radom47%

×Draw25%

Sokół Aleksandrów29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Broń RadomExpected goals in this matchSokół Aleksandrów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.19

Broń Radom

1.59

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.19

Broń Radom creates 34% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 52 away

1.48

creates per match

1.13

1.25

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Broń Radom

1.48

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.13

allows per match

Broń Radom

1.25

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Broń Radom+0.00on par

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broń Radom ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Broń Radom or draw

71%

Broń Radom or Sokół Aleksandrów

75%

Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów

53%

Winning margin

Broń Radom wins by 2+

24%

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Broń Radom 1+ goals

80%

Broń Radom 2+ goals

47%

Broń Radom 3+ goals

21%

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals

70%

Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals

33%

Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Broń Radom (draw refunded)

62%

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broń Radom at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broń Radom attack 1.48 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Broń Radom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Broń Radom scores more

47%

level

25%

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more

29%

Broń Radom at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Broń Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff