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Sokół Aleksandrów vs Błonianka Błonie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
FT
3 – 1
Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
8/29/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów35%
×Draw25%
Błonianka Błonie39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.35
Błonianka Błonie
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.08
Błonianka Błonie
1.37

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Błonianka Błonie
1.63

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par
Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Błonianka Błonie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw
61%
Sokół Aleksandrów or Błonianka Błonie
75%
Draw or Błonianka Błonie
65%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
16%
Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
74%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
39%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
15%
Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
76%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
42%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
47%
Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Błonianka Błonie away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.37 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
35%
level
25%
Błonianka Błonie scores more
39%

Błonianka Błonie at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Sokół Aleksandrów 3–1 Błonianka Błonie

Sokół Aleksandrów beat Błonianka Błonie 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka in Aleksandrów Łódzki.