Soho Jyväskylä 2–1 LehPa: Result & Stats

Soho Jyväskylä

2 – 1

LehPa

3/29/2025

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundVehkahalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Soho Jyväskylä5%

×Draw8%

LehPa87%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Soho JyväskyläExpected goals in this matchLehPa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

3.92

Soho Jyväskylä

0.88

LehPa

3.92

LehPa creates 345% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

4.50

3.33

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Soho Jyväskylä

1.00

LehPa

4.50

allows per match

Soho Jyväskylä

3.33

LehPa

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Soho Jyväskylä+0.00on par

LehPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soho Jyväskylä ↓

LehPa →

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–39%

0–49%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–43%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Soho Jyväskylä or draw

13%

Soho Jyväskylä or LehPa

92%

Draw or LehPa

95%

Winning margin

Soho Jyväskylä wins by 2+

LehPa wins by 2+

73%

Team goals

Soho Jyväskylä 1+ goals

59%

Soho Jyväskylä 2+ goals

22%

Soho Jyväskylä 3+ goals

LehPa 1+ goals

98%

LehPa 2+ goals

89%

LehPa 3+ goals

72%

Draw no bet

Soho Jyväskylä (draw refunded)

LehPa (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Soho Jyväskylä at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

LehPa away — creates 4.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Soho Jyväskylä attack 1.00 + LehPa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

LehPa attack 4.50 + Soho Jyväskylä defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 87%?"

Soho Jyväskylä scores more

level

LehPa scores more

87%

LehPa at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "LehPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff