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Sohar vs Fanja — Professional League 2019

Sohar
Sohar
FT
1 – 2
Fanja
Fanja
11/1/2020Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 26Sohar Regional Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sohar41%
×Draw27%
Fanja32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sohar
1.30
Fanja
1.11

Sohar creates 17% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sohar
1.23
Fanja
1.31

allows per match

Sohar
0.91
Fanja
1.38

finishing

Sohar+0.00on par
Fanja+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sohar ↓

Fanja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sohar or draw
68%
Sohar or Fanja
73%
Draw or Fanja
59%

Winning margin

Sohar wins by 2+
18%
Fanja wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sohar 1+ goals
73%
Sohar 2+ goals
37%
Sohar 3+ goals
14%
Fanja 1+ goals
67%
Fanja 2+ goals
30%
Fanja 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sohar (draw refunded)
56%
Fanja (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sohar at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 79 matches

Fanja away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sohar attack 1.23 + Fanja defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fanja attack 1.31 + Sohar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sohar scores more
41%
level
27%
Fanja scores more
32%

Sohar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sohar vs Fanja

Fanja beat Sohar 2-1 in Professional League on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Sohar Regional Sports Complex in Sohar.