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Sohar vs Al Wehda — Professional League 2019

Sohar
Sohar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Wehda
Al Wehda
4/4/2024Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 15Sohar Regional Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sohar52%
×Draw27%
Al Wehda21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sohar
1.44
Al Wehda
0.82

Sohar creates 76% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sohar
1.23
Al Wehda
0.73

allows per match

Sohar
0.91
Al Wehda
1.64

finishing

Sohar+0.00on par
Al Wehda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sohar ↓

Al Wehda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sohar or draw
79%
Sohar or Al Wehda
73%
Draw or Al Wehda
48%

Winning margin

Sohar wins by 2+
26%
Al Wehda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sohar 1+ goals
76%
Sohar 2+ goals
42%
Sohar 3+ goals
18%
Al Wehda 1+ goals
56%
Al Wehda 2+ goals
20%
Al Wehda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sohar (draw refunded)
71%
Al Wehda (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sohar at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 79 matches

Al Wehda away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sohar attack 1.23 + Al Wehda defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Al Wehda attack 0.73 + Sohar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sohar scores more
52%
level
27%
Al Wehda scores more
21%

Sohar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Sohar 2–1 Al Wehda

Sohar beat Al Wehda 2-1 in Professional League on April 4, 2024.

The match was played at Sohar Regional Sports Complex in Sohar.