Sohar 1–0 Al-Rustaq: Result & Stats

Sohar

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Rustaq

3/7/2024

Professional League · Round 13Sohar Regional Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Sohar43%

×Draw29%

Al-Rustaq28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SoharExpected goals in this matchAl-Rustaq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.95

Sohar

1.23

Al-Rustaq

0.95

Sohar creates 29% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

1.23

creates per match

0.99

0.91

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Sohar

1.23

Al-Rustaq

0.99

allows per match

Sohar

0.91

Al-Rustaq

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sohar+0.00on par

Al-Rustaq+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sohar ↓

Al-Rustaq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sohar or draw

72%

Sohar or Al-Rustaq

71%

Draw or Al-Rustaq

57%

Winning margin

Sohar wins by 2+

19%

Al-Rustaq wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sohar 1+ goals

71%

Sohar 2+ goals

35%

Sohar 3+ goals

13%

Al-Rustaq 1+ goals

61%

Al-Rustaq 2+ goals

25%

Al-Rustaq 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sohar (draw refunded)

60%

Al-Rustaq (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sohar at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 79 matches

Al-Rustaq away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.24 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sohar attack 1.23 + Al-Rustaq defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al-Rustaq attack 0.99 + Sohar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sohar scores more

43%

level

29%

Al-Rustaq scores more

28%

Sohar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff