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Sogndal vs Ull/Kisa — 1. Division 2026

Sogndal
Sogndal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ull/Kisa
Ull/Kisa
5/15/20211. Division1. Division · Round 1Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sogndal54%
×Draw22%
Ull/Kisa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sogndal
2.01
Ull/Kisa
1.29

Sogndal creates 56% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sogndal
1.78
Ull/Kisa
1.26

allows per match

Sogndal
1.32
Ull/Kisa
2.24

finishing

Sogndal+0.00on par
Ull/Kisa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal ↓

Ull/Kisa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sogndal or draw
76%
Sogndal or Ull/Kisa
78%
Draw or Ull/Kisa
46%

Winning margin

Sogndal wins by 2+
32%
Ull/Kisa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sogndal 1+ goals
87%
Sogndal 2+ goals
59%
Sogndal 3+ goals
32%
Ull/Kisa 1+ goals
72%
Ull/Kisa 2+ goals
37%
Ull/Kisa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sogndal (draw refunded)
69%
Ull/Kisa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Ull/Kisa away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal attack 1.78 + Ull/Kisa defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.01

Ull/Kisa attack 1.26 + Sogndal defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sogndal scores more
54%
level
22%
Ull/Kisa scores more
24%

Sogndal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sogndal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Sogndal 1–1 Ull/Kisa

Sogndal and Ull/Kisa drew 1-1 in 1. Division on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Fosshaugane Campus in Sogndal.