Sogndal 3–4 Mjondalen: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Sogndal

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Mjondalen

E. Birkelund 90+3'

L. Kjemhus 38'

S. Haugen 18'

A. Scriven 90+5'

J. Solberg 37'

S. Johansen 32'

J. Bojang 20'

8/28/2018

1. Division · Round 21Fosshaugane Campus (Sogndal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Sogndal48%

×Draw24%

Mjondalen28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogndalExpected goals in this matchMjondalen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.27

Sogndal

1.73

Mjondalen

1.27

Sogndal creates 36% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 75 away

1.78

creates per match

1.23

1.32

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sogndal

1.78

Mjondalen

1.23

allows per match

Sogndal

1.32

Mjondalen

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogndal+0.00on par

Mjondalen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal ↓

Mjondalen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sogndal or draw

72%

Sogndal or Mjondalen

76%

Draw or Mjondalen

52%

Winning margin

Sogndal wins by 2+

26%

Mjondalen wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sogndal 1+ goals

82%

Sogndal 2+ goals

52%

Sogndal 3+ goals

25%

Mjondalen 1+ goals

72%

Mjondalen 2+ goals

36%

Mjondalen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sogndal (draw refunded)

63%

Mjondalen (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Mjondalen away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.67 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal attack 1.78 + Mjondalen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Mjondalen attack 1.23 + Sogndal defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sogndal scores more

48%

level

24%

Mjondalen scores more

28%

Sogndal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sogndal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

20'

32'

37'

38'

46'

N. Baranov← K. Wæhler

60'

T. Olsen← S. Mandić

61'

W. Sell← O. Occéan

67'

V. Diomande← J. Bojang

73'

A. Adams← T. Totland

90'

A. Scriven← V. Diomande

90+3'

E. Birkelund

90+5'

A. Scriven

Sogndal

Mjondalen

1

Makani

6

⚽

Solberg

23

⚽

2

5

7

11

19

3

10

▼

Occéan

31

⚽

▼

Bojang

1

Dyngeland

4

▼

Wæhler

14

Rindarøy

3

Steiring

29

▼

Totland

8

⚽

Birkelund

7

Schulze

22

⚽

Kjemhus

24

Jensen

10

▼

Mandić

18

⚽

Haugen

Manager: E. Bakke

46'▲N. Baranov←▼K. Wæhler

60'▲T. Olsen←▼S. Mandić

73'▲A. Adams←▼T. Totland

Sogndal substitutes

5Baranov23Olsen28Adams20Brændsrød21Rutlin30Soltvedt31Fredriksen

Manager: V. Hansen

61'▲W. Sell←▼O. Occéan

67'▲V. Diomande←▼J. Bojang

90'▲A. Scriven←▼V. Diomande

Mjondalen substitutes

4Sell14Diomande21Scriven16Gundersen25Bokwé

Match Recap: Sogndal vs Mjondalen

Mjondalen beat Sogndal 4-3 in 1. Division on August 28, 2018.

Goals: S. Haugen (18'), J. Bojang (20'), S. Johansen (32'), J. Solberg (37'), L. Kjemhus (38'), E. Birkelund (90+3'), A. Scriven (90+5').

The match was played at Fosshaugane Campus (Sogndal).

Sogndal vs Mjondalen — 1. Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sogndal vs Mjondalen