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Mjondalen vs Sogndal — 1. Division 2018

Mjondalen
Mjondalen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sogndal
Sogndal
10/21/20241. Division1. Division · Round 27Consto Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Mjondalen40%
×Draw25%
Sogndal35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjondalen
1.48
Sogndal
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 130 away

creates per match

Mjondalen
1.45
Sogndal
1.27

allows per match

Mjondalen
1.45
Sogndal
1.52

finishing

Mjondalen+0.00on par
Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjondalen ↓

Sogndal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mjondalen or draw
65%
Mjondalen or Sogndal
75%
Draw or Sogndal
60%

Winning margin

Mjondalen wins by 2+
19%
Sogndal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mjondalen 1+ goals
77%
Mjondalen 2+ goals
43%
Mjondalen 3+ goals
19%
Sogndal 1+ goals
74%
Sogndal 2+ goals
39%
Sogndal 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mjondalen (draw refunded)
54%
Sogndal (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjondalen at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.52 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjondalen attack 1.45 + Sogndal defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sogndal attack 1.27 + Mjondalen defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mjondalen scores more
40%
level
25%
Sogndal scores more
35%

Mjondalen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mjondalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Mjondalen 0–0 Sogndal

Mjondalen and Sogndal drew 0-0 in 1. Division on October 21, 2024.

The match was played at Consto Arena in Mjøndalen.