Sogndal 1–2 Kryvbas KR: Result & Stats

Sogndal

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kryvbas KR

O. Hintsa 57'

G. Mendoza 90'

J. Jones 23'

2/12/2026

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Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sogndal55%

×Draw21%

Kryvbas KR24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogndalExpected goals in this matchKryvbas KR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.31

Sogndal

2.09

Kryvbas KR

1.31

Sogndal creates 60% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

1.94

creates per match

1.00

1.63

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Sogndal

1.94

Kryvbas KR

1.00

allows per match

Sogndal

1.63

Kryvbas KR

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogndal+0.00on par

Kryvbas KR+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal ↓

Kryvbas KR →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sogndal or draw

76%

Sogndal or Kryvbas KR

79%

Draw or Kryvbas KR

45%

Winning margin

Sogndal wins by 2+

33%

Kryvbas KR wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sogndal 1+ goals

88%

Sogndal 2+ goals

62%

Sogndal 3+ goals

34%

Kryvbas KR 1+ goals

73%

Kryvbas KR 2+ goals

38%

Kryvbas KR 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sogndal (draw refunded)

70%

Kryvbas KR (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sogndal at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Kryvbas KR away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal attack 1.94 + Kryvbas KR defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.09

Kryvbas KR attack 1.00 + Sogndal defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sogndal scores more

55%

level

21%

Kryvbas KR scores more

24%

Sogndal at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sogndal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

J. Jones

57'

O. Hintsa

90'

G. Mendoza

Sogndal

Kryvbas

Manager: Luis Pimenta

Manager: Patrick van Leeuwen