Sogndal 2–2 Kongsvinger: Result & Stats

Sogndal

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kongsvinger

P. Asp 90'

P. Flo 90'

M. Vinjor 77'

L. Haren 45'

9/28/2025

1. Division · Round 24Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Sogndal45%

×Draw24%

Kongsvinger31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogndalExpected goals in this matchKongsvinger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.38

Sogndal

1.71

Kongsvinger

1.38

Sogndal creates 24% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 117 away

1.90

creates per match

1.42

1.34

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Sogndal

1.90

Kongsvinger

1.42

allows per match

Sogndal

1.34

Kongsvinger

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogndal+0.00on par

Kongsvinger+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal ↓

Kongsvinger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sogndal or draw

69%

Sogndal or Kongsvinger

76%

Draw or Kongsvinger

55%

Winning margin

Sogndal wins by 2+

24%

Kongsvinger wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sogndal 1+ goals

82%

Sogndal 2+ goals

51%

Sogndal 3+ goals

24%

Kongsvinger 1+ goals

75%

Kongsvinger 2+ goals

40%

Kongsvinger 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sogndal (draw refunded)

59%

Kongsvinger (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.34 · 128 matches

Kongsvinger away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.52 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal attack 1.90 + Kongsvinger defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kongsvinger attack 1.42 + Sogndal defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sogndal scores more

45%

level

24%

Kongsvinger scores more

31%

Sogndal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sogndal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

E. Nielsen

42'

M. Vinjor

45'

L. Haren

59'

M. Sjolstad← V. Hagen

63'

M. Gjerstrom← F. Christensen

65'

F. Holme

67'

M. Hoyland

70'

L. Vapne← T. Pippola

71'

J. Holtan← L. Langrekken

74'

75'

77'

79'

83'

83'

86'

86'

R. Christiansen← L. Haren

87'

D. Bras

90'

P. Asp↳ M. Sjolstad

90'

P. Flo↳ L. Vapne

Sogndal

Kongsvinger

93

12

5

29

19

8

14

▼

Christens

27

Dybevik

9

⚽A

▼

Haren

22

▼

Langrekke

23

⚽

▼

21

2

33

13

⚽

Flo

8

Flaten

6

▼

Hoyland

19

▼

Pippola

10

Skaanes

18

▼

Hagen

9

Hintsa

7

Pedersen

Manager: Luís Berkemeier Pimenta

59'▲M. Sjolstad←▼V. Hagen

70'▲L. Vapne←▼T. Pippola

79'▲P. Asp←▼M. Hoyland

Sogndal substitutes

38Sundal16Vapne17Sjolstad20Asp22Kalstad31Nundal34Kongelf36Aroy39Flo

Manager: Johan Peter Wennberg

63'▲M. Gjerstrom←▼F. Christensen

71'▲J. Holtan←▼L. Langrekken

86'▲M. Flores←▼M. Vinjor

86'▲R. Christiansen←▼L. Haren

Kongsvinger substitutes

71Ekerhaugen3Fjellman11Williams13Flores15Lysell17Gjerstrom18Holtan28Christiansen