Sogndal 3–4 Aalesund: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Sogndal

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Aalesund

V. Hagen 90'

E. Flataker 39'

M. Hoyland 35'

D. Johannsson 90'

S. Haram 72'

C. Braga 52' (pen)

D. Bras 29' (OG)

4/5/2025

1. Division · Round 2Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Sogndal41%

×Draw24%

Aalesund35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogndalExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.46

Sogndal

1.61

Aalesund

1.46

Sogndal creates 10% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 59 away

1.78

creates per match

1.59

1.32

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Sogndal

1.78

Aalesund

1.59

allows per match

Sogndal

1.32

Aalesund

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogndal+0.00on par

Aalesund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sogndal or draw

65%

Sogndal or Aalesund

76%

Draw or Aalesund

59%

Winning margin

Sogndal wins by 2+

21%

Aalesund wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sogndal 1+ goals

80%

Sogndal 2+ goals

48%

Sogndal 3+ goals

22%

Aalesund 1+ goals

77%

Aalesund 2+ goals

43%

Aalesund 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sogndal (draw refunded)

54%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.44 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal attack 1.78 + Aalesund defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Aalesund attack 1.59 + Sogndal defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sogndal scores more

41%

level

24%

Aalesund scores more

35%

Sogndal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sogndal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

D. BrasOwn goal

33'

J. Kitolano

35'

M. Hoyland

39'

E. Flataker↳ O. Hintsa

41'

S. Haram← J. Kitolano

45+3'

V. Hagen← J. Flaten

52'

C. BragaPenalty

53'

L. Vapne

61'

O. Borgthorsson← L. Vapne

67'

H. Hammer← H. Melland

71'

F. Heiselberg← P. Ngongo

71'

72'

73'

80'

80'

80'

R. Onyango← S. A. Granheim

89'

C. Braga

90'

V. Hagen

90'

D. Johannsson↳ C. Braga

Sogndal

Aalesund

1

Grytebust

5

Kjelsen

45

Aukland

25

▼

Kitolano

2

▼

Andresen

11

⚽

Johannsso

66

Seehusen

8

▼

Melland

7

Nesso

9

▼

Ngongo

10

⚽A

Braga

21

Saetren

2

🥅

Bras

32

▼

Oren

33

▼

Granheim

17

Sjolstad

6

⚽

Hoyland

16

▼

Vapne

10

Skaanes

8

▼

Flaten

19

⚽

Flataker

9

A

▼

Hintsa

Manager: Luís Berkemeier Pimenta

45+3'▲V. Hagen←▼J. Flaten

61'▲O. Borgthorsson←▼L. Vapne

80'▲E. Mensah←▼O. Hintsa

80'▲J. Haruna←▼M. Oren

80'▲R. Onyango←▼S. A. Granheim

Sogndal substitutes

1Jendal11Mensah14Haruna18Hagen22Kalstad29Steinset36Aroy77Borgthorsson88Onyango

Manager: Kjetil André Rekdal

41'▲S. Haram←▼J. Kitolano

67'▲H. Hammer←▼H. Melland

71'▲F. Heiselberg←▼P. Ngongo

71'▲J. Boe←▼M. Andresen

Aalesund substitutes

26Larsen3Gudmundsson4Haram6Hammer19Heiselberg29Boe39Lonebu