Sogndal U19 2–7 Odd U19: Result & Stats

Sogndal U19

FT

2 – 7

HT: 0 – 4

Odd U19

1/25/2026

Nasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sogndal U1938%

×Draw19%

Odd U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sogndal U19Expected goals in this matchOdd U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

2.70

Sogndal U19

2.50

Odd U19

2.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

2.58

creates per match

3.06

2.33

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Sogndal U19

2.58

Odd U19

3.06

allows per match

Sogndal U19

2.33

Odd U19

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogndal U19+0.00on par

Odd U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal U19 ↓

Odd U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–25%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Sogndal U19 or draw

56%

Sogndal U19 or Odd U19

81%

Draw or Odd U19

62%

Winning margin

Sogndal U19 wins by 2+

22%

Odd U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Sogndal U19 1+ goals

92%

Sogndal U19 2+ goals

71%

Sogndal U19 3+ goals

45%

Odd U19 1+ goals

93%

Odd U19 2+ goals

75%

Odd U19 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Sogndal U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Odd U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

82%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 2.33 · 24 matches

Odd U19 away — creates 3.06, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal U19 attack 2.58 + Odd U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.50

Odd U19 attack 3.06 + Sogndal U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sogndal U19 scores more

38%

level

19%

Odd U19 scores more

44%

Odd U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Odd U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff