Sogndal II 2–2 Funnefoss / Vormsund: Result & Stats

Sogndal II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Funnefoss / Vormsund

10/7/2023

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 23Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sogndal II53%

×Draw19%

Funnefoss / Vormsund28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sogndal IIExpected goals in this matchFunnefoss / Vormsund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.89

Sogndal II

2.58

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.89

Sogndal II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.23

creates per match

1.85

1.92

allows per match

2.92

creates per match

Sogndal II

2.23

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.85

allows per match

Sogndal II

1.92

Funnefoss / Vormsund

2.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogndal II+0.00on par

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal II ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Sogndal II or draw

72%

Sogndal II or Funnefoss / Vormsund

81%

Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund

47%

Winning margin

Sogndal II wins by 2+

33%

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sogndal II 1+ goals

92%

Sogndal II 2+ goals

72%

Sogndal II 3+ goals

47%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals

85%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals

56%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Sogndal II (draw refunded)

65%

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal II attack 2.23 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.58

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.85 + Sogndal II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sogndal II scores more

53%

level

19%

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more

28%

Sogndal II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sogndal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff