Sogdiana 1–0 Xorazm: Result & Stats | Super League

Sogdiana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Xorazm

L. Doriev 83'

6/19/2025

Super League · Round 13Sogdiana Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sogdiana43%

×Draw27%

Xorazm30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogdianaExpected goals in this matchXorazm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.06

Sogdiana

1.33

Xorazm

1.06

Sogdiana creates 25% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 23 away

1.41

creates per match

1.04

1.07

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sogdiana

1.41

Xorazm

1.04

allows per match

Sogdiana

1.07

Xorazm

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Xorazm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogdiana ↓

Xorazm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sogdiana or draw

70%

Sogdiana or Xorazm

73%

Draw or Xorazm

57%

Winning margin

Sogdiana wins by 2+

20%

Xorazm wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sogdiana 1+ goals

74%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

38%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

15%

Xorazm 1+ goals

65%

Xorazm 2+ goals

29%

Xorazm 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

59%

Xorazm (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogdiana at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Xorazm away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogdiana attack 1.41 + Xorazm defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Xorazm attack 1.04 + Sogdiana defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sogdiana scores more

43%

level

27%

Xorazm scores more

30%

Sogdiana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sogdiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

J. Azimov

46'

S. Samiev← M. Bobodzhonov

65'

J. Kakhramonov

69'

T. Ismoilov← S. Abdullazhonov

69'

F. Narh← J. Azimov

75'

E. Pandzhshanbe← S. Andreev

78'

S. Shaakhmedov← K. Iminov

81'

O. Nurmatov← L. Djordjevic

83'

L. Doriev↳ O. Nurmatov

85'

A. Khusinov← F. Ibrokhimov

90+2'

B. Dzhumatov← L. Doriev

Sogdiana

Xorazm

12

Kobulzhan

44

Tursunov

4

▼

Ibrokhimo

11

▼

15

27

8

9

▼

Azimov

77

▼

Abdullazh

10

▼

Bobodzhon

94

Abdukhami

27

Mitrovic

28

▼

2

3

7

8

19

14

⚽

▼

Doriev

32

Soyibov

77

▼

Djordjevi

9

Mavlonkul

75'▲E. Pandzhshanbe←▼S. Andreev

81'▲O. Nurmatov←▼L. Djordjevic

90+2'▲B. Dzhumatov←▼L. Doriev

Sogdiana substitutes

21Sobirov42Erkinov99Sultonov18Nurmatov11Rashidov17Pandzhshanbe34Misraliev5Dzhumatov46Abdumajidov

46'▲S. Samiev←▼M. Bobodzhonov

69'▲T. Ismoilov←▼S. Abdullazhonov

69'▲F. Narh←▼J. Azimov

78'▲S. Shaakhmedov←▼K. Iminov

85'▲A. Khusinov←▼F. Ibrokhimov

Xorazm substitutes

13Mukhammadzhonov3Sultonov88Khusinov7Ismoilov20Ezhov18Narh99Samiev22Shaakhmedov79Akhrorov

Super League: Sogdiana 1–0 Xorazm

Sogdiana beat Xorazm 1-0 in Super League on June 19, 2025.

Goals: L. Doriev (83').

The match was played at Sogdiana Sport Complex in Jizzakh.

Sogdiana vs Xorazm — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Sogdiana 1–0 Xorazm