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Sogdiana vs Neftchi — Super League 2026

Sogdiana
Sogdiana
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Neftchi
Neftchi
3/2/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1So'g'diyona Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sogdiana35%
×Draw29%
Neftchi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sogdiana
1.10
Neftchi
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 60 away

creates per match

Sogdiana
1.43
Neftchi
1.25

allows per match

Sogdiana
1.02
Neftchi
0.78

finishing

Sogdiana+0.00on par
Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogdiana ↓

Neftchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sogdiana or draw
63%
Sogdiana or Neftchi
71%
Draw or Neftchi
65%

Winning margin

Sogdiana wins by 2+
14%
Neftchi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sogdiana 1+ goals
67%
Sogdiana 2+ goals
30%
Sogdiana 3+ goals
10%
Neftchi 1+ goals
68%
Neftchi 2+ goals
32%
Neftchi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sogdiana (draw refunded)
49%
Neftchi (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogdiana at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.02 · 98 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.78 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogdiana attack 1.43 + Neftchi defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.10

Neftchi attack 1.25 + Sogdiana defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sogdiana scores more
35%
level
29%
Neftchi scores more
37%

Neftchi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sogdiana vs Neftchi

Neftchi beat Sogdiana 2-1 in Super League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at So'g'diyona Sport Majmuasi in Jizzax.