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Sogdiana vs Metalourg — Super League 2026

Sogdiana
Sogdiana
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Metalourg
Metalourg
4/8/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Sogdiana46%
×Draw27%
Metalourg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sogdiana
1.38
Metalourg
0.99

Sogdiana creates 39% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 79 away

creates per match

Sogdiana
1.43
Metalourg
0.97

allows per match

Sogdiana
1.02
Metalourg
1.32

finishing

Sogdiana+0.00on par
Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogdiana ↓

Metalourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sogdiana or draw
73%
Sogdiana or Metalourg
73%
Draw or Metalourg
54%

Winning margin

Sogdiana wins by 2+
22%
Metalourg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sogdiana 1+ goals
75%
Sogdiana 2+ goals
40%
Sogdiana 3+ goals
16%
Metalourg 1+ goals
63%
Metalourg 2+ goals
26%
Metalourg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sogdiana (draw refunded)
63%
Metalourg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogdiana at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.02 · 98 matches

Metalourg away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogdiana attack 1.43 + Metalourg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Metalourg attack 0.97 + Sogdiana defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sogdiana scores more
46%
level
27%
Metalourg scores more
27%

Sogdiana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sogdiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sogdiana vs Metalourg

Sogdiana and Metalourg drew 2-2 in Super League on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Zaamin.