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Sogdiana vs Dinamo Batumi — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sogdiana
Sogdiana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
J. Jaloliddinov 37'
F. Mulic 8'
2/16/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sogdiana58%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Batumi17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sogdiana
1.63
Dinamo Batumi
0.75

Sogdiana creates 117% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sogdiana
1.00
Dinamo Batumi
0.50

allows per match

Sogdiana
1.00
Dinamo Batumi
2.25

finishing

Sogdiana+0.00on par
Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogdiana ↓

Dinamo Batumi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sogdiana or draw
83%
Sogdiana or Dinamo Batumi
75%
Draw or Dinamo Batumi
42%

Winning margin

Sogdiana wins by 2+
32%
Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sogdiana 1+ goals
80%
Sogdiana 2+ goals
48%
Sogdiana 3+ goals
22%
Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
53%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
17%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sogdiana (draw refunded)
77%
Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogdiana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Dinamo Batumi away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogdiana attack 1.00 + Dinamo Batumi defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dinamo Batumi attack 0.50 + Sogdiana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sogdiana scores more
58%
level
25%
Dinamo Batumi scores more
17%

Sogdiana at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sogdiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
F. Mulic
37'
J. Jaloliddinov
Sogdiana
Dinamo
Ivan Boskovic
Manager: Ivan Boskovic
Giorgi Chiabrishvili
Manager: Giorgi Chiabrishvili

Match Recap: Sogdiana vs Dinamo Batumi

Sogdiana beat Dinamo Batumi 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 16, 2026.

Goals: F. Mulic (8'), J. Jaloliddinov (37').