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Sofapaka vs Western Stima — FKF Premier League 2018

Sofapaka
Sofapaka
CANC
11:00
Western Stima
Western Stima
5/16/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 33Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sofapaka42%
×Draw28%
Western Stima30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sofapaka
1.31
Western Stima
1.06

Sofapaka creates 24% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sofapaka
1.25
Western Stima
1.02

allows per match

Sofapaka
1.10
Western Stima
1.36

finishing

Sofapaka+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sofapaka ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sofapaka or draw
70%
Sofapaka or Western Stima
72%
Draw or Western Stima
58%

Winning margin

Sofapaka wins by 2+
19%
Western Stima wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sofapaka 1+ goals
73%
Sofapaka 2+ goals
38%
Sofapaka 3+ goals
14%
Western Stima 1+ goals
65%
Western Stima 2+ goals
29%
Western Stima 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sofapaka (draw refunded)
58%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sofapaka at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.10 · 148 matches

Western Stima away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sofapaka attack 1.25 + Western Stima defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Western Stima attack 1.02 + Sofapaka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sofapaka scores more
42%
level
28%
Western Stima scores more
30%

Sofapaka at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sofapaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sofapaka vs Western Stima — Match Preview

Sofapaka face Western Stima on May 16, 2020 in this FKF Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sofapaka host Western Stima at Kenyatta Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.