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Sofapaka vs Vihiga Bullets — FKF Premier League 2018

Sofapaka
Sofapaka
FT
2 – 0
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
1/28/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 11Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sofapaka57%
×Draw23%
Vihiga Bullets20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sofapaka
1.81
Vihiga Bullets
0.97

Sofapaka creates 87% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 35 away

creates per match

Sofapaka
1.25
Vihiga Bullets
0.83

allows per match

Sofapaka
1.10
Vihiga Bullets
2.37

finishing

Sofapaka+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sofapaka ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sofapaka or draw
80%
Sofapaka or Vihiga Bullets
77%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
43%

Winning margin

Sofapaka wins by 2+
33%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sofapaka 1+ goals
84%
Sofapaka 2+ goals
54%
Sofapaka 3+ goals
27%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
62%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
25%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sofapaka (draw refunded)
74%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sofapaka at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.10 · 148 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sofapaka attack 1.25 + Vihiga Bullets defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.81

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.83 + Sofapaka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sofapaka scores more
57%
level
23%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
20%

Sofapaka at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sofapaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Sofapaka 2–0 Vihiga Bullets

Sofapaka beat Vihiga Bullets 2-0 in FKF Premier League on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.