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Sofapaka vs KCB — FKF Premier League 2018

Sofapaka
Sofapaka
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
KCB
KCB
2/15/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 21Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Sofapaka33%
×Draw29%
KCB37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sofapaka
1.05
KCB
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 148 home / 130 away

creates per match

Sofapaka
1.25
KCB
1.15

allows per match

Sofapaka
1.10
KCB
0.85

finishing

Sofapaka+0.00on par
KCB+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sofapaka ↓

KCB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sofapaka or draw
63%
Sofapaka or KCB
71%
Draw or KCB
67%

Winning margin

Sofapaka wins by 2+
13%
KCB wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sofapaka 1+ goals
65%
Sofapaka 2+ goals
28%
Sofapaka 3+ goals
9%
KCB 1+ goals
68%
KCB 2+ goals
31%
KCB 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sofapaka (draw refunded)
47%
KCB (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sofapaka at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.10 · 148 matches

KCB away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sofapaka attack 1.25 + KCB defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

KCB attack 1.15 + Sofapaka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sofapaka scores more
33%
level
29%
KCB scores more
37%

KCB at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sofapaka 2 – 0 KCB

Sofapaka beat KCB 2-0 in FKF Premier League on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.