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Sofapaka vs Chemelil Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Sofapaka
Sofapaka
FT
1 – 0
Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
6/6/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 18Narok County Stadium (Narok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sofapaka51%
×Draw27%
Chemelil Sugar22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sofapaka
1.42
Chemelil Sugar
0.84

Sofapaka creates 69% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 44 away

creates per match

Sofapaka
1.23
Chemelil Sugar
0.57

allows per match

Sofapaka
1.11
Chemelil Sugar
1.61

finishing

Sofapaka+0.00on par
Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sofapaka ↓

Chemelil Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sofapaka or draw
78%
Sofapaka or Chemelil Sugar
73%
Draw or Chemelil Sugar
49%

Winning margin

Sofapaka wins by 2+
25%
Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sofapaka 1+ goals
76%
Sofapaka 2+ goals
41%
Sofapaka 3+ goals
17%
Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
57%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
21%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sofapaka (draw refunded)
69%
Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sofapaka at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 147 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sofapaka attack 1.23 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.57 + Sofapaka defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sofapaka scores more
51%
level
27%
Chemelil Sugar scores more
22%

Sofapaka at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sofapaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Sofapaka 1–0 Chemelil Sugar

Sofapaka beat Chemelil Sugar 1-0 in FKF Premier League on June 6, 2018.

The match was played at Narok County Stadium (Narok).