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Sofapaka vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2025

Sofapaka
Sofapaka
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bidco United
Bidco United
C. Miheso 80' (pen)
H. Ngala 83'
1/9/2026FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 16Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sofapaka35%
×Draw31%
Bidco United35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sofapaka
1.00
Bidco United
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sofapaka
0.71
Bidco United
0.65

allows per match

Sofapaka
1.35
Bidco United
1.29

finishing

Sofapaka+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sofapaka ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sofapaka or draw
65%
Sofapaka or Bidco United
69%
Draw or Bidco United
65%

Winning margin

Sofapaka wins by 2+
13%
Bidco United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sofapaka 1+ goals
63%
Sofapaka 2+ goals
26%
Sofapaka 3+ goals
8%
Bidco United 1+ goals
63%
Bidco United 2+ goals
26%
Bidco United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sofapaka (draw refunded)
50%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sofapaka at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sofapaka attack 0.71 + Bidco United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.00

Bidco United attack 0.65 + Sofapaka defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Sofapaka scores more
35%
level
31%
Bidco United scores more
35%

Sofapaka at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Sofapaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
C. MihesoPenalty
83'
H. Ngala

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sofapaka vs Bidco United

Sofapaka and Bidco United drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on January 9, 2026.

Goals: C. Miheso (80' pen), H. Ngala (83').

The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.