Sofapaka 1–1 AFC Leopards: Result & Stats

Sofapaka

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AFC Leopards

11/25/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 11Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Sofapaka36%

×Draw29%

AFC Leopards36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SofapakaExpected goals in this matchAFC Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

Sofapaka

1.14

AFC Leopards

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 148 home / 146 away

1.25

creates per match

1.17

1.10

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Sofapaka

1.25

AFC Leopards

1.17

allows per match

Sofapaka

1.10

AFC Leopards

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sofapaka+0.00on par

AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sofapaka ↓

AFC Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sofapaka or draw

64%

Sofapaka or AFC Leopards

71%

Draw or AFC Leopards

64%

Winning margin

Sofapaka wins by 2+

15%

AFC Leopards wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sofapaka 1+ goals

68%

Sofapaka 2+ goals

32%

Sofapaka 3+ goals

11%

AFC Leopards 1+ goals

68%

AFC Leopards 2+ goals

32%

AFC Leopards 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sofapaka (draw refunded)

50%

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sofapaka at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.10 · 148 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sofapaka attack 1.25 + AFC Leopards defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

AFC Leopards attack 1.17 + Sofapaka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sofapaka scores more

36%

level

29%

AFC Leopards scores more

36%

Sofapaka at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sofapaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff