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AFC Leopards vs Sofapaka — FKF Premier League 2018

AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sofapaka
Sofapaka
2/19/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 22Dandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

AFC Leopards41%
×Draw30%
Sofapaka29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Leopards
1.15
Sofapaka
0.90

AFC Leopards creates 28% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 147 away

creates per match

AFC Leopards
1.15
Sofapaka
0.94

allows per match

AFC Leopards
0.86
Sofapaka
1.14

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par
Sofapaka+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Sofapaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw
71%
AFC Leopards or Sofapaka
70%
Draw or Sofapaka
59%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+
18%
Sofapaka wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals
68%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
32%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
11%
Sofapaka 1+ goals
59%
Sofapaka 2+ goals
23%
Sofapaka 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
59%
Sofapaka (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Sofapaka away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.14 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Sofapaka defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sofapaka attack 0.94 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AFC Leopards scores more
41%
level
30%
Sofapaka scores more
29%

AFC Leopards at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Leopards vs Sofapaka

AFC Leopards and Sofapaka drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on February 19, 2025.

The match was played at Dandora Stadium in Nairobi.