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Sofán vs Barco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Sofán
Sofán
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Barco
Barco
3/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Campo del Sofán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sofán30%
×Draw25%
Barco45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sofán
1.18
Barco
1.51

Barco creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 78 away

creates per match

Sofán
0.94
Barco
1.21

allows per match

Sofán
1.81
Barco
1.42

finishing

Sofán+0.00on par
Barco+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sofán ↓

Barco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sofán or draw
55%
Sofán or Barco
75%
Draw or Barco
70%

Winning margin

Sofán wins by 2+
12%
Barco wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sofán 1+ goals
69%
Sofán 2+ goals
33%
Sofán 3+ goals
12%
Barco 1+ goals
78%
Barco 2+ goals
44%
Barco 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sofán (draw refunded)
40%
Barco (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sofán at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Barco away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sofán attack 0.94 + Barco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Barco attack 1.21 + Sofán defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sofán scores more
30%
level
25%
Barco scores more
45%

Barco at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Barco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sofán vs Barco

Barco beat Sofán 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Campo del Sofán in La Coruña.