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Sofán vs Alondras — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Sofán
Sofán
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Alondras
Alondras
11/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Campo de futbol do Carballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sofán29%
×Draw26%
Alondras45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sofán
1.12
Alondras
1.48

Alondras creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 109 away

creates per match

Sofán
0.94
Alondras
1.15

allows per match

Sofán
1.81
Alondras
1.30

finishing

Sofán+0.00on par
Alondras+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sofán ↓

Alondras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sofán or draw
55%
Sofán or Alondras
74%
Draw or Alondras
71%

Winning margin

Sofán wins by 2+
11%
Alondras wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sofán 1+ goals
67%
Sofán 2+ goals
31%
Sofán 3+ goals
10%
Alondras 1+ goals
77%
Alondras 2+ goals
43%
Alondras 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sofán (draw refunded)
39%
Alondras (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sofán at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Alondras away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sofán attack 0.94 + Alondras defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Alondras attack 1.15 + Sofán defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sofán scores more
29%
level
26%
Alondras scores more
45%

Alondras at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alondras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sofán vs Alondras

Alondras beat Sofán 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de futbol do Carballo in O Porriño.