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Sodupe vs Tolosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Sodupe
Sodupe
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tolosa
Tolosa
5/29/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2nd Phase - 8Campo Lorenzo Hurtado de Saratxo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sodupe48%
×Draw27%
Tolosa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sodupe
1.45
Tolosa
0.99

Sodupe creates 46% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

creates per match

Sodupe
1.17
Tolosa
0.96

allows per match

Sodupe
1.03
Tolosa
1.73

finishing

Sodupe+0.00on par
Tolosa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sodupe ↓

Tolosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sodupe or draw
74%
Sodupe or Tolosa
73%
Draw or Tolosa
52%

Winning margin

Sodupe wins by 2+
24%
Tolosa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sodupe 1+ goals
77%
Sodupe 2+ goals
42%
Sodupe 3+ goals
18%
Tolosa 1+ goals
63%
Tolosa 2+ goals
26%
Tolosa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sodupe (draw refunded)
65%
Tolosa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sodupe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Tolosa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sodupe attack 1.17 + Tolosa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.45

Tolosa attack 0.96 + Sodupe defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sodupe scores more
48%
level
27%
Tolosa scores more
26%

Sodupe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sodupe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sodupe vs Tolosa

Tolosa beat Sodupe 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Lorenzo Hurtado de Saratxo in Sodupe.