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Sodupe vs Sestao River — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Sodupe
Sodupe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sestao River
Sestao River
9/14/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Campo Lorenzo Hurtado de Saratxo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sodupe30%
×Draw27%
Sestao River44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sodupe
1.10
Sestao River
1.39

Sestao River creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sodupe
1.17
Sestao River
1.75

allows per match

Sodupe
1.03
Sestao River
1.04

finishing

Sodupe+0.00on par
Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sodupe ↓

Sestao River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sodupe or draw
56%
Sodupe or Sestao River
73%
Draw or Sestao River
70%

Winning margin

Sodupe wins by 2+
12%
Sestao River wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sodupe 1+ goals
67%
Sodupe 2+ goals
30%
Sodupe 3+ goals
10%
Sestao River 1+ goals
75%
Sestao River 2+ goals
40%
Sestao River 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sodupe (draw refunded)
41%
Sestao River (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sodupe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sodupe attack 1.17 + Sestao River defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sestao River attack 1.75 + Sodupe defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sodupe scores more
30%
level
27%
Sestao River scores more
44%

Sestao River at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Sodupe 0–1 Sestao River

Sestao River beat Sodupe 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Lorenzo Hurtado de Saratxo in Sodupe.